Can Caleb Williams Become the First Bears QB to Throw for 4,000 Yards?
Updated: Sep 17
Right now, the Chicago Bears are the only franchise within the NFL that has never had a passer throw for more than 4,000 yards. Caleb was very close last year, throwing for 3,942 yards. After leading Coach Ben Johnson's offense for only one year, it stands to reason that Williams should be able to break the 4,000-yard mark.
But what needs to be done to get there? He threw for 269 yards against Carolina on Sunday. So now he is currently 3,731 yards away from hitting 4,000 passing yards.
The Bare Minimum
There are 16 games left in the regular season for Caleb to surpass the 4,000 passing yard barrier, becoming the first Bears QB to do so. So with 3,731 yards left over 16 games, Williams would need at least 233 yards per game to hit the barrier.
There are going to be games like Carolina where it is a shootout and it will be easy to inflate the amount of yards in those games. However, there are also going to be slug fests where it will be harder to pass or move the ball downfield.
Caleb Williams and the Bears Path
Considering that last season was Caleb's first year in this offense, his experience will come into play. If we remember from last year, there was a brief adjustment period from Matt Eberflus to Ben Johnson. That isn't the case this year, though.
The Bears also have a first-place schedule, so the schedule is supposed to be more challenging this year. Looking at how teams performed and the current status of who is injured on those teams, the level of challenge fluctuates.
There are three important stats to look for when it comes to pressuring a quarterback, available on PFF. If a team can apply enough pressure with four guys, successfully blitz, or run stunts, it will present a problem.
The 4-Man Pass Rush
The 4-man pass rush is a standard pressure of the pass, and only teams with at least one stellar defensive lineman are able to execute this successfully. Unfortunately for Caleb, the Bears play three of the top five pass-rushing teams over the past few seasons. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks.
Detroit is no surprise, with Dan Campbell at the helm and Aidan Hutchinson on the defensive line; this was expected. The problem is that Caleb and the Bears not only have to deal with Detroit once, but twice on their schedule. However, the first time the Bears play the Lions is November 26th, and a lot can change until then.
Philadelphia is another team that I was not surprised to see on this list. They have been known to have elite linemen not only on defense, but offense as well. This will be the Bears' first game against a top pass rush this year, which is on September 28th.
And Seattle just won a Super Bowl, and we all saw how that defense looked. People were saying last year that The Legion of Boom 2.0 had arrived; that is how good their defense and pass rush were. Chiago plays Seattle in the first week of November.
Blitzes Could Create Problems
Blitzing forces the quarterback to make a quick decision. Normally, in a blitz, you will see more than 5 guys running at you; in extreme cases, you'll typically see seven. Caleb is going to see 2 of the top blitzing teams in the league, the Packers and the Jets.
Like the Lions, the Packers are a team the Bears will see twice this year. But the Bears beat the Packers twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. The Bears play the Packers on October 11th and December 25th.
Imagine when the Bears play Green Bay the second time, and Caleb passes the 4,000-yard mark on Christmas. That would be a great present for Caleb, the team, and the fan base!
The other team that Caleb will need to keep in mind is the New York Jets. Ben Johnson is familiar with their style after working alongside Aaron Glenn, who is currently the Jets' head coach. That will give Caleb a small advantage, since Ben Johnson will be able to prepare Caleb for Glenn's defensive schemes.
Stunts Could Disrupt Caleb
If a team successfully executes a stunt play, they are able to disrupt the offensive line in a creative way and generate unblocked pressure. When it comes to stunts, there are two teams that Caleb will need to worry about: the Packers and the Vikings. Interestingly enough, the Bears also appear in the upper rankings for stunts.
The Packers appearing in two categories for defense is not ideal for Caleb. The games against Green Bay are already tough as it is due to the long-standing rivalry. The games against the Packers are most likely where Caleb might be forced under the 233-yard threshold to get to 4,000 yards.
The Vikings are interesting because, under Brian Flores, they are known for their blitzes. But last year, they were extremely efficient in stunting, so the Bears are likely going to see more of that this year. After what the Vikings did to Green Bay in week 1, Caleb may be forced to throw in high-pressure and uncomfortable situations.
Summary
Can we know for sure whether or not Caleb Williams will be the first Chicago Bear to get more than 4,000 passing yards? No, we cannot. But considering the game he had against Carolina and what he has to do just to hit the barrier, it is in the realm of possibility.
This is not going to be easy; otherwise, it would have been done sooner and by a different Bears quarterback.
Caleb already has the record for most passing yards for a Chicago Bears quarterback last season. But if he breaks the 4,000-yard mark, he will cement himself in history as one of the greatest quarterbacks to play for the Bears. He could even put himself in the MVP conversation if he passes the barrier.
Being able to know what is coming and be prepared for these defenses that are on the schedule will be key. But this will be Caleb's second year in the offense and Coach Johnson is familiar with a lot of these defenses. That greatly increases Caleb's chances of breaking 4,000 yards by the season's end.
Comments