Why Ben Solak's Bold Jonathan Taylor Prediction Probably Won't Happen

Through 2025, Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 7,598 yards and 69 touchdowns. He led the NFL in rushing with 1,811 yards in his second season, and has scored 18 rushing TDs two times. © Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We are currently in the dog days of the NFL offseason, when bold predictions and trade speculation dominate the headlines. On Wednesday, ESPN's Ben Solak added to that conversation with an article outlining 10 Predictions for the 2026 NFL season. Among them was one involving the Chicago Bears potentially making a move that, while intriguing, is highly unlikely to ever come to fruition.

Ben Solak Believes the Chicago Bears Could Trade for Jonathan Taylor

Solak's prediction would definitely be an exciting proposition if it came true. Jonathan Taylor has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since entering the league in 2020. However, there are many factors in the way of this trade being a reality.

1. Ryan Poles has a history of not making big-name trades

For all the credit general manager Ryan Poles gets for pulling off the trade that landed Chicago Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, and many others, he has yet to make huge trades to bring in established players.

Last offseason, he had the chance to trade for Micah Parsons. Parsons would have changed the whole equation for the Bears' pass rush. Instead, Parsons landed with Chicago's bitter rival, the Green Bay Packers. In exchange for Parsons, Green Bay sent defensive tackle Kenny Clark, a 2026 first-round pick, and a 2027 first-round pick.

While Chicago definitely didn't have the sort of ammunition, Poles doesn't seem to want to give away draft capital for established players. That was shown this offseason again when the Las Vegas Raiders traded Mxx Crosy to the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore was willing to give up a 2026 first-round pick (No. 14 overall) and a first-round pick in 2027 to get Crosby. Although Poles did go on record saying they were looking into Crosby, it's unclear how serious they were when doing it. Again, Chicago didn't have that level of ammunition; there were ways to get creative with the trade.

In this scenario with Taylor, the price will likely end up being less than Parons or Crosby from a compensation standpoint, but it's still a risk Poles may not take.

2. Taylor will need a contract extension

Solak mentions in his article that part of the reason Indianapolis may trade Taylor is because of his looming contract extension. This will be Taylor's third NFL contract. At 27 years old this season, this contract will likely bring him to his age 30 season. These days, many running backs don't make it that far.

Currently, only Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey are on their third contracts. That said, let's take Henry out of the equation because he's an anomaly. McCaffrey hasn't had the smoothest time since signing his extension in 2024.

The 30-year-old missed all but four games in 2024 due to injury. Upon his return in 2025, McCaffrey saw a decrease in efficiency. Last season, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. While some of this had to do with San Francisco's offensive line injuries, it's fair to question if age also played a role.

Poles could fear the same sort of drop-off from Taylor even though he put together an amazing start to the season in 2025. Taylor also has injury concerns. The 27-year-old has missed time during the 2022 and 2023 seasons because of injury.

Moreover, giving Taylor a lucrative extension would mess with the math for Caleb Williams' eventual extension. Given these contract constraints, pulling off a deal for Taylor would be very difficult.

3. RB isn't a position of need

Sure, an argument can be made that the Bears need a better RB3. However, adding Taylor would be a gross mismanagement of resources. Chicago has much more obvious needs at pass rusher,

Although Poles and Bears coaches seem to believe in the pass rush heading into the season, not calling it a weak position group as it stands now is crazy. Whatever draft capital, player, or combination of both, they could give up to get Taylor, could have feasibly been used to acquire Maxx Crosby.

Trading for Taylor would not only not fit the team's roster needs, but it would go against everything that is being built. Chicago is looking for long-term success, and mortgaging picks for an established, aging running back doesn't fit their current model.